Data-Center Build Gauge
Monthly read on promoted data-center build signals and the early-warning link to semiconductor demand.
Current regime
steady
Run 2026-06 - confidence low
Build rate
1.70 GW/q
YoY trailing 4q
8.9%
Lead quarters
4
As of
2026-06-06T20:01:16+00:00
One-Paragraph Read
Build rate is 1.70 GW/q with trailing YoY 8.9%; lead/lag is 4 quarters at correlation 0.81. Build-rate history is interpolated from annual capacity points.
Indicator Ladder
| Metric | Region | Basis | Period | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| book_to_bill | Global | grid_demand | 2025Q4 | 2.90 x | vertiv_b2b |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2020Q2 | 16.11 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2020Q3 | 20.16 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2020Q4 | 30.09 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2021Q1 | 27.64 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2021Q2 | 29.14 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2021Q3 | 32.38 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2021Q4 | 37.86 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2022Q1 | 37.05 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2022Q2 | 36.91 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2022Q3 | 39.47 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2022Q4 | 41.52 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2023Q1 | 35.34 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2023Q2 | 33.27 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2023Q3 | 36.31 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2023Q4 | 44.13 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2024Q1 | 44.57 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2024Q2 | 49.79 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2024Q3 | 56.56 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2024Q4 | 73.21 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2025Q1 | 72.38 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2025Q2 | 90.94 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2025Q3 | 100.48 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2025Q4 | 114.91 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2026Q1 | 126.77 USD_bn | amzn_capex+googl_capex+meta_capex+msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2026Q2 | 41.91 USD_bn | msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| capex | United_States | capex_usd | 2026Q3 | 49.51 USD_bn | msft_capex+orcl_capex |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2019Q2 | 0.76 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2019Q3 | 0.79 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2019Q4 | 1.38 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2020Q1 | 0.63 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2020Q2 | 0.66 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2020Q3 | 0.73 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2020Q4 | 0.97 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2021Q1 | 1.14 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2021Q2 | 1.75 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2021Q3 | 1.90 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2021Q4 | 1.90 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2022Q1 | 2.05 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2022Q2 | 2.37 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2022Q3 | 2.94 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2022Q4 | 3.26 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2023Q1 | 3.75 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2023Q2 | 3.81 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2023Q3 | 3.83 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2023Q4 | 3.62 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2024Q1 | 4.28 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2024Q2 | 10.32 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2024Q3 | 14.51 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2024Q4 | 18.40 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2025Q1 | 22.56 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2025Q2 | 26.27 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2025Q3 | 30.77 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2025Q4 | 35.58 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2026Q1 | 39.11 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2026Q2 | 41.10 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2026Q3 | 51.22 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2026Q4 | 62.31 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| dc_revenue | Global | revenue_usd | 2027Q1 | 75.25 USD_bn | nvda_dc |
| operational_capacity | ERCOT | grid_demand | 2026-04 | 5.90 GW | ercot_queue |
| operational_capacity | North_America | it_load | 2025 | 39.00 GW | jll |
| operational_capacity | PJM | grid_demand | 2025 | 8.17 GW | pjm_queue |
| operational_capacity | World_ex_CRO | it_load | 2024 | 45.68 GW | knight_frank |
| operational_capacity | World_ex_CRO | it_load | 2025 | 55.65 GW | knight_frank |
| operational_capacity | World_ex_CRO | it_load | 2026 | 66.50 GW | knight_frank |
| planned | ERCOT | grid_demand | 2033 | 445.80 GW | ercot_queue |
| planned | PJM | grid_demand | 2026 | 11.48 GW | pjm_queue |
| planned | PJM | grid_demand | 2027 | 15.87 GW | pjm_queue |
| planned | PJM | grid_demand | 2028 | 21.29 GW | pjm_queue |
| planned | PJM | grid_demand | 2029 | 27.37 GW | pjm_queue |
| planned | PJM | grid_demand | 2030 | 38.81 GW | pjm_queue |
| planned | United_States | grid_demand | 2025 | 31.00 GW | goldman_us |
| planned | United_States | grid_demand | 2026 | 41.00 GW | goldman_us |
| planned | United_States | grid_demand | 2027 | 66.00 GW | goldman_us |
| planned | World_ex_CRO | it_load | 2026 | 16.00 GW | sightline |
| planned | World_ex_CRO | it_load | 2026Q1 | 11.00 GW | sightline |
| under_construction | ERCOT | grid_demand | 2026-04 | 3.20 GW | ercot_queue |
| under_construction | North_America | it_load | 2025 | 35.00 GW | jll |
| under_construction | United_States | grid_demand | 2026 | 13.60 GW | goldman_us |
| under_construction | United_States | grid_demand | 2027 | 36.30 GW | goldman_us |
| under_construction | World_ex_CRO | it_load | 2026Q1 | 5.00 GW | sightline |
Lead/Lag Check
| Key | Period | Value | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| acceleration | 2025Q2 | 0.8568 | GW/q |
| acceleration | 2025Q3 | 0.8568 | GW/q |
| acceleration | 2025Q4 | 0.3895 | GW/q |
| acceleration | 2026Q1 | 0.0347 | GW/q |
| acceleration | 2026Q2 | 0.0763 | GW/q |
| acceleration | 2026Q3 | 0.0763 | GW/q |
| acceleration | 2026Q4 | 0.0347 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q | 2024Q2 | 0.0000 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q | 2024Q3 | 0.0000 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q | 2024Q4 | 0.0000 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q | 2025Q1 | 1.5578 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q | 2025Q2 | 3.4272 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q | 2025Q3 | 3.4272 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q | 2025Q4 | 1.5578 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q | 2026Q1 | 1.6966 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q | 2026Q2 | 3.7324 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q | 2026Q3 | 3.7324 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q | 2026Q4 | 1.6966 | GW/q |
| build_rate_gw_q_confidence | 2024Q2 | 1.0000 | weakly_inferred |
| build_rate_gw_q_confidence | 2024Q3 | 1.0000 | weakly_inferred |
| build_rate_gw_q_confidence | 2024Q4 | 1.0000 | weakly_inferred |
| build_rate_gw_q_confidence | 2025Q1 | 1.0000 | weakly_inferred |
| build_rate_gw_q_confidence | 2025Q2 | 1.0000 | weakly_inferred |
| build_rate_gw_q_confidence | 2025Q3 | 1.0000 | weakly_inferred |
| build_rate_gw_q_confidence | 2025Q4 | 1.0000 | weakly_inferred |
| build_rate_gw_q_confidence | 2026Q1 | 1.0000 | weakly_inferred |
| build_rate_gw_q_confidence | 2026Q2 | 1.0000 | weakly_inferred |
| build_rate_gw_q_confidence | 2026Q3 | 1.0000 | weakly_inferred |
| build_rate_gw_q_confidence | 2026Q4 | 1.0000 | weakly_inferred |
| lead_quarters | scalar | 4.0000 | quarters |
| leadlag_corr | scalar | 0.8107 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | -1 | 0.4519 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | -2 | 0.5431 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | -3 | 0.2479 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | -4 | 0.2278 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | -5 | 0.6644 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | -6 | 0.9392 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | -7 | 0.7480 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | -8 | 0.5367 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 0 | 0.0525 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 1 | -0.1167 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 10 | -0.0079 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 11 | 0.0131 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 12 | -0.0357 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 2 | 0.4128 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 3 | 0.7612 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 4 | 0.8107 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 5 | 0.6022 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 6 | 0.3009 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 7 | 0.2874 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 8 | 0.4856 | corr |
| leadlag_corr_by_lag | 9 | 0.3398 | corr |
| leadlag_overlap_quarters | scalar | 11.0000 | quarters |
| trailing4q | 2025Q1 | 0.3895 | GW/q |
| trailing4q | 2025Q2 | 1.2462 | GW/q |
| trailing4q | 2025Q3 | 2.1030 | GW/q |
| trailing4q | 2025Q4 | 2.4925 | GW/q |
| trailing4q | 2026Q1 | 2.5272 | GW/q |
| trailing4q | 2026Q2 | 2.6035 | GW/q |
| trailing4q | 2026Q3 | 2.6798 | GW/q |
| trailing4q | 2026Q4 | 2.7145 | GW/q |
| yoy_pct | 2026Q1 | 5.4891 | pct |
| yoy_pct | 2026Q2 | 1.0891 | pct |
| yoy_pct | 2026Q3 | 0.2743 | pct |
| yoy_pct | 2026Q4 | 0.0891 | pct |
Track Record
| Run | As of | Regime | Build rate | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 2026-06-06T20:01:16+00:00 | steady | 1.70 GW/q | low |