# Data Center Build Trend MVP Plan

## Goal

Build a fast research product that answers a simple question:

Are more credible data-center gigawatts moving through the build funnel, and how fast are they likely to become operational over the next 4, 8, and 12 quarters?

The goal is trend detection, not a complete global site census. The MVP should show whether the build rate is accelerating, slowing, or bottlenecked, while keeping capacity stages and definitions separate.

## Recommended Research Question

Is probability-weighted data-center capacity moving from announced and planned stages into under-construction, power-ready, and operational stages faster or slower than it was in prior quarters?

## Why This Is Better Than A Single Capacity Number

A single "global capacity" number mostly tells us the stock. It does not say whether the next wave is speeding up or stalling. The trend MVP tracks stage movement:

- new operational additions,
- new construction starts,
- under-construction backlog,
- power-ready and commissioning capacity,
- signed or committed power/load,
- planned and announced pipeline,
- delays, cancellations, and stage regressions.

## MVP Name

Data Center Build Velocity Monitor.

## MVP Scope

Start with sources that can be updated quickly:

- Global and regional market trackers: JLL, CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, Knight Frank, DC Byte, DataCenterDynamics, Synergy, Structure Research where available.
- Utility and ISO/RTO sources: ERCOT, PJM, AEP, Dominion, Oncor, Georgia Power, AESO, EirGrid, AEMO, and selected local utilities.
- Country and regional swing markets: US, Canada, Europe/Ireland, APAC ex-China, India, Malaysia/Johor, Japan, Korea, Australia, Latin America, Gulf, Africa.
- Company and project checks only where needed to explain a large regional movement or bottleneck.

## Core Metrics

1. Build Velocity Index
   - Composite score showing whether credible GW are moving forward or stalling.

2. Stage-Weighted GW Funnel
   - Operational, commissioned/energized, under construction, signed/committed, permitted, planned, announced, and raw queue capacity kept separate.

3. Quarterly Net Additions
   - Operational GW added by quarter or year, plus near-term forecast additions.

4. Construction Conversion Rate
   - Share of under-construction or committed capacity that appears likely to reach operational status within 4, 8, and 12 quarters.

5. Delay And Cancellation Monitor
   - Projects or regional capacity that slipped, stalled, was cancelled, or moved backward in confidence.

6. Regional Momentum Map
   - Which markets are adding credible GW and which are constrained by power, permits, land, water, financing, or supply chain.

## Stage Weights For MVP Forecasting

Use these only as starting weights. They should be calibrated against historical conversion once data is available.

- Operational: 1.00
- Commissioned or energized: 0.90
- Under construction with power evidence: 0.75
- Under construction without power evidence: 0.55
- Signed lease or signed power/load commitment: 0.55
- Permitted or zoning approved: 0.35
- Planned with site control and credible sponsor: 0.25
- Announced without permits or power: 0.10
- Raw interconnection queue or load request: 0.05

## First MVP Output

The first publishable result should contain:

- One-page answer: accelerating, stable, slowing, or mixed.
- Stage-weighted GW funnel by region.
- Actual operational additions through the latest year/quarter.
- Near-term 4/8/12 quarter forecast of likely operational additions.
- Table of biggest positive and negative revisions.
- Delay/cancellation watchlist.
- Source pack with basis, scope, confidence, and date.

## Data Files

- `build_velocity_scores.csv`
- `stage_weighted_funnel.csv`
- `operational_additions.csv`
- `near_term_additions_forecast.csv`
- `regional_momentum.csv`
- `delay_watchlist.csv`
- `source_registry.json`
- `build_trend_report.md`

## Scoring

Score each region and the global composite from -2 to +2:

- +2: clear acceleration in credible GW moving forward.
- +1: modest acceleration.
- 0: stable, mixed, or unclear.
- -1: modest slowdown or rising delays.
- -2: clear deterioration, cancellations, or severe bottlenecks.

Each score must include:

- source references,
- capacity basis,
- stage,
- region,
- period,
- confidence,
- reason for score,
- change since prior update.

## Fast Build Sequence

1. Define capacity bases and stage taxonomy.
2. Pull global and regional market tracker data.
3. Pull utility/load/power signals for bottleneck regions.
4. Normalize all figures into a single stage-separated dataset.
5. Calculate quarterly additions, funnel, conversion, and delay metrics.
6. Publish the first dashboard and source pack.
7. Refresh monthly for source updates and quarterly for fuller market tracker updates.

## What To Avoid

- Do not sum operational, planned, under-construction, and raw queue GW.
- Do not compare IT load, facility power, and grid demand without labeling the basis.
- Do not treat announced capacity as "going up" unless it progresses to power, permits, construction, or commissioning.
- Do not spend the MVP budget building a global project database before the stage-level trend is clear.
- Do not hide delays. A strong pipeline with rising slippage is a different signal from a strong pipeline converting on time.